What is known and what remains uncertain
| Indicator | Usable information | Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Pump prices | Adjustment reported on 1 September | Prices may vary by station and city |
| Next adjustment | No later increase confirmed in sources checked by 5 September | A forecast is not a retailer’s announcement |
| Crude and refined products | Both affect procurement costs | Brent alone does not determine the retail litre |
| Exchange rate | Dollar purchases expose costs to USD/MAD | Tourist exchange rates are not importers’ actual transaction costs |
Our diesel and petrol price tracker records available observations. This analysis explains what could influence the next adjustment.
Why Brent is only part of the picture
Brent is a crude-oil benchmark; motorists buy refined fuel. Diesel and petrol quotations can move differently as demand, refinery availability and logistics change.
On 2 September, Hespress cited Brent at USD 90.53. That is a dated press observation, not a live price for 5 September or a verified quotation for imported diesel. The official series accessible during our checks did not provide a complete, comparable set of latest Brent, refined-product and USD/MAD closing values. We therefore do not calculate a predicted increase from incomplete market data.
The Competition Council’s March 2026 note examines how international movements reach Moroccan pump prices. It helps explain transmission, but does not supply September prices.
Dollars, supplies and the final pump price
If the dollar price stays unchanged but buying one dollar requires more dirhams, procurement becomes more expensive. A stronger dirham can soften that effect. Exchange-rate observations must nevertheless match the procurement period; a single quotation is insufficient.
Transport, storage, taxation and margins also contribute to the final price. International tensions may affect oil, freight or insurance without immediately producing identical changes across filling stations. Supply contracts and stock replacement matter.
Three household-budget scenarios
For a 40-litre purchase, a MAD 0.50 change per litre means MAD 20. This is an arithmetic example, not a forecast.
| Illustrative assumption | Difference on 40 litres |
|---|---|
| Unchanged price | MAD 0 |
| MAD 0.50/litre increase | +MAD 20 |
| MAD 0.50/litre decrease | −MAD 20 |
Falling crude prices do not guarantee a local reduction if refined diesel or the dollar rises. Equally, a short-term rise in Brent does not prove that a station will raise its price tomorrow.
Checking a price announcement
Look for the date, fuel type, retailer, city and actual displayed price. Receipts make comparisons between two purchases at the same station more meaningful. Claims that “all fuel costs 15 dirhams” erase differences between petrol, diesel and retailers.
Separate the direct cost of filling your tank from possible effects on transport fares or goods. Those depend on contracts and operators’ decisions; they do not automatically move in proportion to the price per litre.
Common questions
Is a price increase tomorrow certain?
No. As of 5 September, the sources reviewed confirm no new increase after the 1 September adjustment.
Does diesel cost MAD 15.01 everywhere?
No. This reported observation is dated 1 September and may differ by station.
Why not calculate the next price from Brent?
The calculation also needs refined-product quotations, exchange rates applicable to purchases and the remaining components of the retail price.
Further reading
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